What Would the U.S. Economy Be Without Immigrants?

Immigrants Have Sustained and Had a Stong Impact on the US Economy for Decades

Migration Decline Is Already Hitting Jobs and Growth

Data Contradict the Trump Administration’s Political Narrative

For more than half a century, the immigrant population in the United States grew steadily. That cycle has now been broken. In 2025, for the first time since the 1960s, the number of immigrants began to decline.

This is no minor detail. It comes precisely as multiple studies confirm that, for 30 years, immigrants did more than participate in the economy—they helped sustain the country’s public finances.

The contradiction is striking and raises an uncomfortable question for today’s debate.

A Breaking Point After Half a Century of Migration Growth in the US

In January 2025, the United States reached a historic record: 53.3 million immigrants were living in the country. By June, the figure had fallen to 51.9 million—a reduction of more than one million people in just a few months, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

The foreign-born population dropped from representing 15.8% to 15.4% of the national total. The decline is explained by more departures, deportations, and fewer arrivals.

Immigrants Impact on US Economy – PHOTO: Shutterstock

The context matters: this drop is occurring at a time when the economy continues to depend on that labor force.

Is the US prepared to grow with fewer immigrants?

Thirty Years of Paying More Than They Received

For decades, political discourse has portrayed immigrants as a fiscal burden. The data tell a different story.

Between 1994 and 2023, immigrants generated a cumulative fiscal surplus of $14.5 trillion. This means that year after year, they paid more in taxes than they received in public benefits.

In the face of so much xenophobic discourse, it’s important to look at the data. And this U.S. data is key: from 1994 to 2023, the immigrant population paid more in taxes each year than it received in benefits. And the difference is substantial.” pic.twitter.com/31vYJV69X3

— Iván Stola (@IvanStola) February 5, 2026

The calculation includes federal, state, and local taxes, as well as savings in debt interest. Without this contribution, deficits and public debt would have been significantly higher.

If the numbers are so clear, why does the public debate continue to ignore them?

When the Labor Force Begins to Shrink

The migration decline is already having visible effects on the labor market. In 2023, nearly one in five workers in the US was an immigrant.

By 2025, that share fell from 20% to 19%. In real terms, that means more than 750,000 fewer workers in just six months, according to the Pew Research Center.

“If Mexicans in the U.S. were a country, they would be the 10th largest economy in the world. And the Latino community as a whole would be the 4th—and soon the 3rd. While Trump says ‘Mexico lives off the U.S.,’ the data show the opposite: the U.S. increasingly depends on Latinos.” pic.twitter.com/yF2tmZScZc

— Canal Red América Latina (@CanalRedAmLat) December 2, 2025

Between January and August 2025, the total number of foreign workers fell by more than one million. The trend particularly affects labor-intensive sectors.

For decades, the US economy grew with an expanding workforce.

Immigrants Impact on US Economy – PHOTO: Shutterstock

Undocumented Immigrants: High Contributions, Limited Rights

Undocumented immigrants are at the center of political debate—and of work. Between 11 and 11.7 million have lived in the US in recent years.

Of them, around 8.3 million were working, equivalent to 4.8% of the entire labor force. Their fiscal contribution is significant.

Immigrants Impact on US Economy – PHOTO: Shutterstock

In 2022, they paid between $76 billion and $96.7 billion in taxes. They also contributed more than $22 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare.

All of this without full access to those programs. Can a system that depends on people who cannot benefit from it be sustainable?

Immigrants Impact on the US Economy: Key Sectors Already Feeling It

The reduction in immigrant workers does not affect all sectors equally. Some are feeling it sooner than others.

In agriculture, about 68% of workers were foreign-born. Construction, restaurants, hospitality, and healthcare also rely heavily on this labor.

CATO INSTITUTE:

Without immigrants, U.S. public debt would rise to 205% of GDP—nearly double its 2023 level. Compared with the native-born population, immigrants at all education levels reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio… pic.twitter.com/MiZiM1lsH2

— Miguel gutierrez -Macroeconomista- (@Mike051270) February 5, 2026

Since early 2025, job growth in these industries has been lower than in the rest of the private sector. Fewer workers mean less production and lower local tax revenue.

The impact extends to communities, schools, and public services.

Immigrants Impact on US Economy – PHOTO: Shutterstock

Economic Growth, Consumption, and Innovation at Risk

The economic effect goes beyond employment. Recent studies by the American Immigration Council estimate that mass deportations would reduce GDP by between 4.2% and 6.8%.

Over ten years, cumulative losses could reach 6.2% of GDP. That means less growth, less investment, and lower competitiveness.

Immigrants also drive innovation. In 2024, 46% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children.

Although they represented only 16% of the inventor workforce, they generated nearly 23% of all patents.

A Political Shift With Economic Consequences

More restrictive immigration policies under Donald Trump coincide with this demographic shift. Increased deportations and the elimination of certain legal statuses are already having measurable effects.

Since 2025, job growth has slowed in sectors dependent on immigrant labor. The US Department of Labor has warned of potential labor shortages, especially in agriculture.

Fewer immigrants also mean lower tax revenue and greater pressure on public spending. The contradiction is clear.

You may also like: Another Illness Confirmed Among Detained Migrants! Two Cases at the Largest Detention Center Raise Alarm

The Question Still on the Table

For 30 years, immigrants helped sustain US public finances. Today, their numbers are beginning to fall.

The discussion is no longer ideological—it is economic.

If the country benefited from their contribution for decades, what would the US economy be without immigrants?